Weak La Niña to be felt by August — PAGASA

The transition to weak La Niña is expected in the middle of August and October, according to PAGASA.

The state weather bureau said that the country is currently in a "neutral phase" after El Niño ended earlier this month. 

According to PAGASA's weather services chief Climatology and Agrometeorology Division, Thelma Cinca, their El Niño-Southern Oscillation alert and warning system must reach a certain threshold before they can declare the start of La Niña.

“Ang La Niña ay isang condition sa Central Pacific na ang ating tinitingnan na indexes ng sea surface temeprature. Kung El Niño ay mas mataas sa .5 ang La Niña naman ay -.5 and below,” Cinco said.

(La Niña is a condition in the Central Pacific wherein we are monitoring the indexes of the sea surface temperature. If the indication of El Niño is more than .5, the indication of La Niña is -.5 and below.)  

El Niño and La Niña have a slow onset and the usual downpour in June due to southwest monsoon or habagat will not manifest yet, PAGASA said.

Cinco added that rain is expected toward the end of the year as La Niña’s developing stage will be from June to August.

PAGASA also observed a shorter duration between El Niño and La Niña compared to 2023 when the neutral phase took months before it shifted to La Niña.

Cinco said this may be due to climate change. --Mariel Celine Serquiña/ VAL, GMA Integrated News