PH now in 'weak El Niño' which may end in June —PAGASA

PAGASA on Monday said the country is now in the "weak El Niño" stage, and the weather phenomenon may end by June.

"Nasa weak El Niño na po tayo at ine-expect natin na maaaring by June ay matapos na itong panahon ng El Niño," PAGASA weather specialist Benison Estareja said in an interview on Unang Balita.

(We are in the weak El Niño stage and we expect that by June, El Niño will be done by then.)

"'Yung ating temperatures ay magiging normal o neutral na ulit," he added.

(Our temperatures will become normal or neutral again.)

The El Niño phenomenon is characterized by the abnormal warming of sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and below-normal rainfall.

"El Niño increases the probability of dry spells that could lead to drought," Dr. Ana Liza Solis, the climate monitoring and prediction chief of PAGASA, said last year.

However, Estareja said the effects of the weather phenomenon this year may linger due to the "lag effect".

"Subalit mayroon tayong lag effect. So ibig sabihin niyan magkakaroon ng konting delay doon sa epekto ng El Niño. Maaaring magtagal pa rin 'yung medyo kulang na ulan hanggang sa susunod na buwan," he said.

(There's such a thing as lag effect. That means there will be a slight delay in the effects of El Niño. The effects may still be felt in the following month, such as lesser rainfall.)

Estareja said one or two tropical cyclones may affect the country this month.

"Base sa Climatology Division ng PAGASA, possible for this month 'yung isa o dalawang bagyo," he said.

(Based on the Climatology Division of PAGASA, one or two tropical cyclones may possibly occur this month.)

"Mayroon tayong minomonitor na cloud cluster sa may Pacific Ocean as of now and hindi rin natin inaalis ang chance na mabubuo siya as a low pressure area. But probably kung magkaroon man tayo ng bagyo, towards the third or fourth week pa po ng Mayo," the weather specialist said.

(We are monitoring a cloud cluster in the Pacific Ocean as of now. We are not dismissing the chance that a low pressure area may be formed. But probably, if we will have a tropical cyclone, it will be towards the third or fourth week of May.)

Global boiling

Asked to explain global boiling, which the United Nations warned the public about in 2023, Estareja said: "It's almost equivalent sa global warming pero ineemphasize natin 'yung epekto ng mas mabilis na pag-init ng ating mundo."

(It's almost equivalent to global warming but it emphasizes the effects such as faster rising temperatures.)

"So ibig sabihin possible na mas maging drastic 'yung impact in terms of lakas ng mga bagyo, in terms of pagtaas ng sea level natin, and then 'yung mga different effects pa like 'yung mas madalas na heat wave, mas madalas na drought o tagtuyot in the coming decades," he added.

(So that means, it is possible that the effects would be more drastic in terms of the intensity of cyclones, in terms of the rise in sea level, and then the different other effects such as frequency of heat wave and drought in the coming decades.) —KG, GMA Integrated News