Worst of El Niño yet to come, warns PAGASA

State weather forecasters PAGASA on Friday warned that the worst of El Niño has yet to come.

With the Amihan season expected to last for two to three more weeks, PAGASA said the public should expect actual temperatures to soar as high as 40 degrees Celsius, particularly in some areas in northern Luzon. 

Heat index, also referred to as discomfort index, can go much higher.

The highest temperature recorded so far this year has been 37.1 degrees Celsius, recorded in Zamboanga City on February 15. 

"Hindi pa natin nararanasan 'yung sinasabi natin na matinding mga init until mag-terminate tayo ng Amihan. May mga areas na na-predict natin could be as high as 40 degrees lalo na sa mga areas ng Cagayan Valley region by April, May, makikita natin yun," said Ana Solmoro Solis, chief of PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section.

(We will not experience the worst of the heat until the end of Amihan. We've predicted that in some areas the temperature could reach as high as 40 degrees especially in areas in Cagayan Valley by April or May.)

While the strong and mature El Niño has peaked last month and is expected to weaken, the lag effect will be felt in the next three months, Solis adds.

"Historically, lagi pong may lag effect ang El Niño, ibig sabihin although pababa na 'yung strong and mature El Niño, ngayon pa lang natin mararanasan ang posibleng magiging impact sa pagsisimula ng Marso," she said.

(Historically, El Niño always has a lag effect, meaning although strong and mature El Niño has passed, it is only now at the start of March that we will experience its possible impact.)

Based on PAGASA's latest data as of February 25, 24 provinces in the country are experiencing meteorological drought conditions, or at least a 60% reduction from average rainfall for three consecutive months, or 20 to 60% reduction from average for five consecutive months.

The town of Bulalacao in Negros Oriental has already declared a state of calamity due to damage to agriculture caused by El Niño. Other towns in Negros Occidental are expected to follow suit.

PAGASA fears that the onset of rainy season may be delayed in some areas, which can wreak further havoc to the already scorched farmlands in some areas of the country.

"Ang critical is 'yung sa May dahil onset ito ng rainy season. What if 'yung iba hindi pa makabawi? May mga areas na made-delay ang onset ng rainy season eh galing na sila sa prolonged drought," Solis said.

(May would be critical because of the onset of the rainy season. What if the others have yet to recover? The onset of the rainy season would be delayed in some areas even though they've come from prolonged drought.)

The government has repeatedly called on the public observe water conservation measures as dams are expected to hit below-normal levels and may threaten water supply for domestic use. —KBK, GMA Integrated News