Below average number of tropical cyclones, warmer temperatures expected in 2024 - PAGASA

The Philippines will experience below average number of tropical cyclones and warmer temperatures this year in light of the El Niño phenomenon, the state weather bureau PAGASA said Tuesday.

According to PAGASA Assistant Weather Services chief and Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section head Ana Liza Solis, the country may only see 13 to 19 tropical cyclones for the whole year instead of the usual 19 to 20.

“Dito sa first quarter or up to the second quarter ng 2024, mga around 2 to 5 na bagyo lang [ang mararanasan] and pagdating po ng July to December, yung nakikita nating taya ng bilang ng bagyo is mga around 11 to 14,” Solis said in a public briefing.

(In the first quarter or up to the second quarter of 2024, we will have around 2 to 5 tropical cyclones and 11 to 14 from July to December.)

At the start of the El Niño phenomenon in 2023, only 11 tropical cyclones entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility.

Because of the effects of El Niño, 2024 has the potential to be one of the warmest years on record, with temperatures possibly hitting 40 degrees Celsius during the dry season (March, April, and May).

“Karagdagan pa [diyan] yung sinasabi nating alinsangan o heat index. Ito naman pong possible na 40 degrees ay di naman po sa buong Pilipinas, so usually po naeexperience natin yan sa may Cagayan Valley Region,” she said.

(In addition, we also have the heat index. The possible 40 degrees is not for the whole Philippines. It is usually experienced in the Cagayan Valley Region.)

Meanwhile, Metro Manila may also experience dry spell or drought as early as February or March.

“For three or five consecutive months, mga around 21% to more than 60% po yung possible na reduction ng tubig ulan dito sa Metro Manila,” said Solis.

(Here in Metro Manila, we have a potential reduction of rainwater of between 21% and over 60% for three or five consecutive months.)

The rainy season is set to begin in the second half of May.

President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. earlier ordered his Cabinet to create Task Force El Niño, which is tasked with preparing adequate food, water and energy supplies for the incoming drought season.

Part of the national action plan is to ensure there is an adequate supply of water and energy in order to avoid power losses.

The task force will also need to ensure the public's safety from fire, heat-related illnesses and most importantly the effects on food supply since agriculture is expected to be affected by the severe weather conditions. — Jiselle Anne Casucian/VBL, GMA Integrated News