PAGASA warns El Niño's impact may become severe, widespread

State weather bureau PAGASA warned on Thursday that the impact of the El Niño phenomenon in the country may become severe and widespread.

“Hindi lang ‘yung reduction ng tubig ulan pati ‘yung mainit na temperature for the next dry season natin. ‘Yun po ‘yung ating medyo dapat nating paghandaan. ‘Yung tipikal na mainit na walang ulan,” said Ana Liza Solis, chief of PAGASA climate monitoring and prediction section, in Mark Salazar’s report on “Balitanghali.''

(Not only water reduction but higher temperatures for the next dry season too. We should prepare for this. The typical warm weather with no rain.)

The El Niño phenomenon is characterized by the abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and below-normal rainfall. 

At least 17 government agencies, led by the Office of Civil Defense (OCD), formed the National El Niño Team, a specialized body tasked with preparing for the mitigation of the effects of the climate phenomenon. 

For its part, the Department of Energy (DOE) allayed fears of power supply issues and higher electricity rates even despite decreased allocations for hydropower plants in case of reduced water supply during El Niño.

“Ang maganda namang balita based on the projections of the DOE, wala naman tayong aasahan na malala or brownouts na mangyayari during the El Nino,” said OCD Undersecretary Ariel Nepomuceno.

(The good news was that based on the DOE projections, we don’t expect severe or brownouts during El Niño.)

DOE Undersecretary Felix Fuentabella added: “Sa pie chart natin nandon ‘yung coal, ‘yung geothermal, ‘yung ibang fuel. So, ang rule of thumb is ‘pag renewable energy, zero ‘yung fuel.''

(In our pie chart, there's coal, geothermal, and fuel. The rule of thumb is renewable energy sources mean zero fuel.)

Although the water supply for irrigation will be the first to be reduced in the event of a shortage, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said it does not expect the country’s agriculture sector to be severely impacted by the phenomenon.

“For rice, we’re seeing something like a 2% to 5% impact on production. But that’s quite small compared to the previous El Niño phenomenon when production declined anywhere from 10% to 20%,” NEDA Secretary Arsenio Balisacan.

However, the Department of Agriculture (DA) expects an increase in vegetable prices.

''Meron pang ibang sources ng gulay. ‘Wag natin kalimutan palaging nandyan ang malunggay, gabi, di lang ‘yung pang-Pinakbet na gulay. Kasi talagang pag papunta sa latter part of the year, may mga kanipisan sa supply nito,” said  DA’s National El Niño Team chairperson U-Nichols Manalo.

(We can still have other vegetables. Usually, vegetable supplies decline in the latter part of the year.)

According to PAGASA, eight to 11 tropical cyclones are expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility before the end of the year. 

But the state weather bureau warned that the devastation of cyclones may be more severe under El Niño.

“October, November, December, eto ‘yung landfalling crossing tropical cyclone. ‘Pag ‘yan naman ang tumawid sa atin magiging lubhang mapaminsala kung ‘di man po ulan, ‘yung hangin malakas. Usually, kapag may El Niño napaka-erratic ng track ng bagyo kaya napakachallenging sa atin to predict,” said Solis.

(October, November, and December are the periods of landfalling or crossing tropical cyclones. If the cyclones cross, it can be very dangerous due to heavy rains or powerful winds. El Niño also makes the cyclone's track erratic, making it challenging to predict.) — VBL, GMA Integrated News