UP scientists develop impact-based flood forecasting system 

A group of scientists from the University of the Philippines Diliman has developed an impact-based flood forecasting system capable of predicting floods in the Philippines. 

“This system can determine whether a neighborhood is likely to be affected by a major flood event 24 hours in advance,” said UP Resilience Institute (UPRI) executive director Mahar Lagmay in a statement, noting that the system was able to forecast the flooding in Davao, Palawan, and Borongan in Eastern Samar.

“When accessed on the NOAH website, areas prone to flooding due to severe weather are shown in map view or tabular format, with the number of potentially affected people listed down to barangay level,” he added.

The project was developed by Lagmay, scientists from UPRI Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (NOAH) Center, and Gerry Bagtasa of UPD College of Science’s Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology (UPD-CS IESM). They were assisted by Bernard Alan Racoma of IESM. 

It was funded by the United States Agency for International Development’s Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (USAID-BHA).

The system can forecast flooding in specific areas based on accumulated rainfall forecast, or the predicted total rainfall, and 100-year rain return flood hazard maps that show areas prone to severe flooding based on history. 

“By adjusting global weather models to match the country’s specific geography and weather patterns, the system releases predictions that are more accurate,” said UPD-CS. 

The system has been available since 2024, however, Lagmay encourages the public to help in validating the data being provided. 

“The public can contribute information through the LyfSaver app, allowing Filipinos to report floods in their area,” said Lagmay. 

The state weather bureau PAGASA earlier terminated its alert on La Niña, which is associated with above normal rainfall conditions. 

With the recent development, PAGASA said that El Niño or La Niña conditions are not observed or expected to develop in the tropical Pacific within the next three months.

The country was hit with six consecutive typhoons in only a span of a month beginning October 2024: Typhoon Kristine , Supertyphoon Leon, Typhoon Marce, Typhoon Nika, Supertyphoons Ofel and Pepito. 

The six typhoons along with Aghon and Pepito were decommissioned by PAGASA from its roster of names of tropical cyclones due to the massive destruction they caused in parts of the country. — Vince Angelo Ferreras/BM, GMA Integrated News