UP mathematicians develop algorithm that can simulate monkeypox outbreaks

Mathematicians from the University of the Philippines (UP) Diliman developed an algorithm that simulates and predicts the spread of monkeypox outbreaks in non-endemic countries. 

Doctors Victoria May Mendoza and Renier Mendoza of the UP College of Science Institute of Mathematics collaborated with South Korean researchers to develop the algorithm using a a mathematical model based on Gillespie’s stochastic chemical kinetics.

Stochastic models are quantitative techniques that take into account random variables when predicting possible outcomes. They were commonly used to analyze the effects of infectious diseases but it was the first time they were used for monkeypox outbreaks.

According to the researchers, "the study provides a more intuitive analysis that healthcare authorities may use as guiding information in the management and detection of possible monkeypox outbreaks in the future."

Based on the study published in the Journal of Medical Virology, the researchers found the most crucial element affecting the size of an outbreak and its potential duration is the behavior of the primary person to be infected and whether they will report their status.

In cases where the primary patient self-reports their condition, the number of infected individuals increased by 11% while in cases where they did not, infections rose by 40%.

 

 

 

The researchers said one of the factors that discourage patients from reporting their status is the associated stigma on monkeypox.

 “The social media coverage about monkeypox spread directly or indirectly generates racist and homophobic stereotypes that worsen stigma,” the study said.

 “Healthcare authorities must ensure confidentiality of confirmed cases and individuals under investigation, and access to health services. Moreover, prompt case finding and information campaigns must be conducted,” it added.

A viral infection resembling smallpox and first detected in humans in 1970, monkeypox is less dangerous and contagious than smallpox, which was eradicated in 1980.

The first symptoms can include a fever, headaches, sharp muscle pains, fatigue, a rash, as well as swollen and painful lymph nodes.

In November 2022, the World Health Organization recommended changing the name of monkeypox to “mpox” to reduce the stigma.

The virus itself is transmittable either through animal-to-human or human-to-human contact with bodily fluids or any contaminated material. For the 2022 outbreak, the symptoms were largely flu-like, with rashes that started around the genital area—but unlike the rashes typical to monkeypox, they appeared more similar to measles or other noninfectious conditions.—RF, GMA Integrated News