COVID-19 quarantine effective: 9k to 44k cases seen by end-April —UP experts

The COVID-19 Pandemic Response Team of the University of the Philippines said the Luzon-wide enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) has so far been effective in curbing coronavirus infections, even as it projected 9,000 to 44,000 infections by the end of the month.

In a study published on Monday, the UP Team said it now takes longer for confirmed COVID-19 cases to double in number.

“Based on these trends, one can estimate about 9,000 to 44,000 possible cases reported by the end of April 2020. In general, this indicates the relative success of the ECQ–along with other interventions–in containing the spread of the virus,” they said.

The experts explained that 9,000 is a “low estimate” based on the current linear trend of cases, while 44,000 is the “high estimate” based on the overall early-phase exponential trend.

The team also advocated for a modified community quarantine beyond April 30, citing an “unnecessary paralyzation of local economies” if the restriction on the movement of goods and services over a large area is prolonged.

They had earlier warned that in the worst-case scenario, where no quarantine is enforced, cases could spike to 600,000 to 1.4 million nationwide.

The Philippines has reported 4,932 COVID-19 cases with 315 deaths and 242 recoveries as of Monday afternoon.

Reproductive number down

The UP Team said the country’s case fatality rate and reproduction number based on data as of April 10 show that “the ECQ has been effective.”

“Based on best available data as of 10 April 2020, we report an estimated case fatality rate of 5.38% and a reproduction number of 0.6398,” they explained. “The goal is to keep bringing the reproductive number down to lower than 1 through continued medical and non-medical interventions.”

The experts underscored, however, that quantifying the effectiveness of the ECQ is “highly dependent” on measures taken to discover new cases, citing Singapore whose reproduction number was pulled up due to widespread testing.

Modified quarantine

Though the UP Team assessed the ECQ to be effective, they also acknowledged that a long-term quarantine of a wide area may not be sustainable.

“In light of this reality, our best recourse after April 30 is to implement graduated activation of ECQ depending on the level of risk in certain areas at a given time,” they said.

Under such set-up, local government units may be placed under ECQ based on their proximity to an estimated outbreak threshold.

“The approach presented here depends entirely on the quality of official reports, testing accuracy, monitoring, and faithful accounts of fatalities, among others,” they noted.

“Model estimates would improve much if nationwide barangay-level COVID-19 related data are available daily… By getting near real-time data, it becomes easier to project the rate of spread and identify locations of hotspots and outbreaks on a daily basis.” —JST, GMA News