Pagbibitiw ni Sen. Zubiri at pagbabago sa Senado, may epekto ba sa BBM admin?

"I have never dictated my position to any of you, and I always supported your independence — which is probably why I face my demise today. I failed to follow instructions from the powers that be."

Ito ang naging pag-amin ni Sen. Juan Miguel Zubiri tungkol sa kaniyang pagkakatanggal sa puwesto bilang Senate president. Sinabi niya ito sa kanyang valedictory speech nang magbitiw siya sa kanyang posisyon sa Senado.

Sa isang panayam, inamin ng bagong Senate president na si Sen. Chiz Escudero na siya ang nag-initiate o nagpasimula ng ouster plot kay Sen. Zubiri.

Ang epekto ng pagpapalit ng liderato at iba pang mga pagbabago sa Senado, panoorin sa buong panayam ng political analyst at chairperson ng UP Department of Political Science na si Prof. Aries Arugay dito sa #TheMangahasInterviews.

MALOU: Magandang araw po sa inyong lahat! Narito kayo sa The Mangahas Interviews. Aba eh nagpalitan ng pwesto sa Senado. Ano kaya itong musical chairs na ito? May implikasyon ba sa eleksyon next year, party politics at sa legislative agenda ng Senado?

Kasama po natin ang isang pantas, professor at chairperson ng Department of Political Science ng University of the Philippines, Diliman — Professor Dr. Aries Arugay. Magandang araw, sir!

ARUGAY: Magandang araw, Malou. Magandang araw sa mga nanonood ng iyong programa.

MALOU: Alright. Si Professor Aries po ay maraming award ano po. Hindi lang bilang researcher, writer, editor, pati na rin scientist. Siya po ang unang Pilipinong nakakuha ng isang award na ganu'n for Filipino scholars.

Anyway, magandang araw, Prof. Aries. What is the meaning of this? Bakit nag-musical chairs? Ano problema kay Zubiri? Ano pangako ni Escudero?

ARUGAY: Alam nyo, makulay talaga iyong political alignments sa Senado historically. At itong nakita natin, it's just the newest addition to the really interesting political power play sa Senado which is a very important institution in our democracy. We know that supposedly the majority in the Senate, halos supermajority nga iyan or talagang supermajority kasi only two senators affiliate themselves with the minority. Mukhang hindi pa ito nangyari sa kasaysayan ng Senado na talagang halos less than 10% lang iyong minority compared to the 22-member majority. But despite this, iyong power play na nakita natin, iyong leadership succession indicates that there is very little ties that bind this supermajority. It seems like this supermajority is only linked by a very thin line of convergence. And this convergence was of course shattered given this leadership change.

MALOU: Ano po ba 'yung nangyari kay Sen. Migz Zubiri? Siya ba'y na-coup d'etat, ousted? Siya ba'y nag-resign? Siya ba ay parang nawalan ng loyalty o na-betray ng mga senator?

ARUGAY: Mukhang ousted kasi kahit si Sen. Zubiri nagulat, and if you remember my previous news before na Sen. Zubiri was quite confident. Parang meron pang manifesto of support na inilabas iyong some of the members of the supposed majority and of which he himself signed na confident sa leadership, sa liderato niya, ni Senator Zubiri. Mukhang nalusaw iyon. Nakita natin iyon this week and it's interesting na this happened a few days before the actual adjournment of the Congress iyong on the Senate part. So, and given the emotional reactions of former Senate President Zubiri, kahit siya mismo he even said he was really surprised with the outcome.

MALOU: Ang turn niya ay, una daw agad, heartbroken. Sunod, dumbfounded. So, was he found dumb? Hindi niya to na-anticipate? And also, mukhang may betrayal. 'Yung mga nangako sa kanya na hindi siya ia-oust ay biglang bumaliktad. Ano ba sa tingin ninyo? Si Senator Zubiri ba ay nahuling natutulog sa pansitan? Hindi niya ito na-anticipate?

ARUGAY: I think mayroong, if we will trace, maraming steps towards that only culminated with his replacement and in fact, ni-reveal ng bagong Senate president that he really made moves for this leadership change. Deliberate, hindi as if sinalo lang or the new Senate President Escudero simply was the last person holding the hot potato. Parang talagang there were deliberate moves on his part to convince a majority within the majority to replace Zubiri. Culmination ito, in terms of, I think Senator Zubiri was really torn between keeping the supposed independence of the Senate despite the majority expressing support to the administration. And 'yung failure niya to deliver some of the things that he has committed para sa executive legislative agenda.

MALOU: Ang sabi po niya, may mensahe siyang kakaiba. Parang hindi natin malaman. "I was not following orders from above. Ano kaya iyong orders na iyon? Ano po ba iyong mga kulang pa? Iyong Cha-cha? Ano po ba iyong sa tingin ninyong he was not following orders? Anong orders?

ARUGAY: Sa tingin ko parang three strikes or more than three strikes. And this is why iyong timing ng pagkakatanggal sa kanya is quite interesting because normally kung may leadership changes, sa simula iyan ng bagong Kongreso, which will be after SONA in July. Pero ito parang hindi na hinintay, and hindi man lang binigyan sana ng konting leeway si Sen. Zubiri to even finish iyong a Congress, or at least iyong session.

Three strikes iyong nakikita ko. Iyong una, iyong people's initiative nga, iyong sa Cha-cha and despite the joint resolution, the Senate has its own version and iyong version na iyon is at odds with what the House of Representatives passed and were trying to push forward.

Second, I think iyong mainit na relasyon between Philippines and China and supposedly kasi between the House and the Senate, pagdating sa foreign policy, it's the Senate that takes the lead kasi nga it has the power to ratify treaties. So iyong malamig na treatment ng Senate leadership towards investigating and trying to get to the bottom of gentleman's agreement, iyong issues about apparently there were things that were promised to the government of China, certain officials, apparently, lumalabas ngayon.

And finally, I think, talagang iyong doon sa PDEA Leaks, and this is a hearing that is ongoing. And kaya siguro sinabing not following instructions because may gusto iyong executive branch malamang at malamang hindi tumugma doon sa mga naging desisyon ng Senate leadership.

MALOU: Okay. Ngayon, kasama po ba dyan kaya iyong International Criminal Court? Kasi mukhang parang patuloy pa rin iyong apela ng ilang senador, katulad ng Sen. Risa Hontiveros na imbestigahan, payagan na parang mag-imbestiga sa extrajudicial killings.

ARUGAY: Malou, kitang kita iyong dilemma ni Sen. Zubiri kasi on the one hand, supposedly, he committed that this majority, supermajority, will support the legislative agenda and therefore, pati iyong Malacañang and the Marcos Jr. administration. But at the same time, di ba ang sabi nga nila sa Senado, 24 republics. So, and the independence of the Senate is something that supposedly is the major job of the Senate President to protect and defend the Senate.

Kaya, para siya talagang na-trap and something has to give — whether to follow, to toe the line of Malacañang, to give it support and to protect it, protect the presidency and the leadership and also to ensure that the interest of the Senate will not be compromised.

Finally, parati natin isipin na the Senate is quite unique because if you look at all the previous presidents of this country, a lot of them came from the Senate. So, we're not just talking about 24 elected public officials. We're talking about 24 presidentiables, basically, because they're nationally elected.

MALOU: Ngayon, sa panig po ni Sen. Chiz Escudero, ang ating bagong Senate president, sinabi niya na he initiated, ano po, iyong discussions, kasi merong concerns ang ilang senador, kay Sen. Miguel Zubiri.

At the same time, in a week's time, hala, nakakuha siya ng labing tatlo hanggang sa naging labing lima iyong pumirma para siya ang maging Senate president. All at once, meron silang dinner sa Malacañang kahapon. Kasama si Senator, si Speaker Martin Romualdez daw at saka si President BBM at First Lady Liza Araneta Marcos. Ano ibig sabihin ito kay Sen. Chiz? What kind of a Senate president will he be? Para bang walang independence?

ARUGAY: Ang sabi naman sa balita, this dinner was pre-scheduled. So therefore, it's not as if na, sige, mag-wine and dine tayo after being able to recalibrate the Senate towards supposedly now that it will become more compliant, let's say on the executive or in Malacañang.

But, balik ako doon sa point ko, no. To assume that the Senate will completely just copy-paste what Malacañang is doing or perhaps the House of Representatives is really an assumption more than something that we can expect. Kasi sabi ko nga, these senators are nationally elected. They feel that they have a mandate, and this mandate is not simply to follow, siguro, to comply, or to toe the line if it concurs with their interests, both individual and collective, but iyong ability nila to be autonomous. Sa tingin ko, kahit sinong ilagay mong Senate president, hindi mawawala iyon.

MALOU: Iyong assertion of independence kung kakailanganin. Sabi naman ni Senator Chiz, in fairness, ayaw pa rin niya ng Charter change. At iyong mga polisiya, na parang magkakasundo sila ay okay lang iyon. Pero sa totoo lang, iyong supermajority na iyon ay hati-hati din. PDP-Laban, Nationalist People's Coalition, Independents, at tila wala namang Partido Federal ng Pilipinas, na partido ni President BBM. So among themselves, 'yung supermajority may issues din.

ARUGAY: Mayroon din and sa tingin ko, while they can formally declare na, “Ito ang party ko, ganito kami kadami,” it will be quite dangerous to assume that they will vote and they will position themselves according to their party lines. Let's not forget that within the 24-member Senate, may dynasties. Mayroong magkakamag-anak, mayroong mag-ina, mayroong magkapatid.

MALOU: Dalawang magkapatid.

ARUGAY: Dalawang magkapatid. Merong mga related and therefore, some blood is thicker than party lines. So, kailangan din tignan, i-analyze that the positioning of the senators has less to do with party affiliations perhaps, and more to do with dynastic connections and definitely political ambitions.

MALOU: Parang ito yata ay one step closer. May pangitain ba dito na sa May 2028 ay tila big important player si Senator Chiz?

ARUGAY: Let us remember, noon pa, naalala ko ito noong mga early 2000s. Noon, mas bata, part pa siya nung Spice Boys ba iyon? Or this group of bright boys, Spice Boys na naging Bright Boys. Kasama niya, in fact, si Senator Zubiri du'n sa grupo na iyon. And many were already seeing his potential and in fact, that's why he ran as vice president in 2016. And now as Senate president, kung titignan mo, number four siya, di ba? In constitutional succession, nasa constitutional succession siya, in fact. Kasi number four ang Senate.

MALOU: Supreme Court, Chief Justice, Senate President.

ARUGAY: Number three pa nga, kasi Speaker, di ba? So, kung baga nasa linya siya and he is just a few steps away, supposedly.

MALOU: A few steps away.

ARUGAY: Exactly. So, hindi natin pwedeng tanggalin iyon. And we know that the trajectory of Senator Escudero’s career, seems to be ang direksyon, eventually, tumakbo siyang vice president. I mean, ano ba naman, don't tell me na hanggang doon na lang vision mo, no? I mean, you don't need a PhD in political science to figure that out.

MALOU: Alright. Okay. Ngayon si Senator Nancy Binay, merong balita the other day na sabi niya, may ilang senador na bumaliktad. Nangako ng suporta for Senator Zubiri and then sa huli, parang napunta kay Senator Escudero. Kasama na yata dito si Senator Bato dela Rosa na medyo umiyak po sa Senado. Ano po tingin ninyo itong betrayal episode sa Senado? Wala bang loyalty ang ating mga senador? Liban doon sa sinabi niyong party-family ties.

ARUGAY: In mature democracies, all of this should be behind the scenes. Hindi na dapat binabalandra ito because it really tells you and gives you an idea of how politicians behave. And, we've seen this, walang filters, wala lahat, raw and unpolished. Unfortunately, it really reveals the very flimsy and contingent loyalties, contingent positioning of our, supposedly, of our senators. While all of this political drama is happening, ang daming kailangang issues at ang daming kailangan panukalang batas na sana dapat ay tutukan din ng pansin naman.

MALOU: May sinabi si Senator Zubiri na mahalaga. Una, in politics, there are no permanent friends, only permanent interests. At pangalawa, sabi niya, the Senate is the last bastion of democracy. Ano sa tingin ninyo? Iyong una ay totoo, iyong pangalawa ay threatened na baka hindi na maging totoo?

ARUGAY: Actually, sa pag-aaral, kung titignan natin ang Philippine legislative politics, iyong Senado talaga has historically stood its ground, despite opposing presidential positions on issues. Remember, the Senate is the one who voted against the US bases, even if back then, President Corazon Aquino has asked them and even lobbied for the Bases Treaty to be renegotiated and bigyan pa ng bagong lease. This is a Senate that refused to give a budget to President Arroyo when she was president. And this is a Senate that has put a stop on some of the laws and the bills that were passed by the House to ensure, supposedly, democratic principles and democratic norms.

So may part na ganoon iyong Senado, and this is why I think na-maintain that it has to be nationally elected, that this is a smaller number of people compared to the House. And supposedly talaga, ang kasaysayan, hindi lang kailangan, isa lang iyong chamber ng Congress mo, there needs to be a buffer. Kasi kung hindi, kung ano iyong kapritso noong isang legislative institution, iyon na iyon, no? And we have seen this in history.

Noong 2019, no opposition senator who was candidate was elected. For the first time in the Senate's history. And sabi ko nga, there were only two who declared themselves as part of the minority. So perhaps, hindi lang ito iyong indikasyon that the Senate might be losing its ability, to be a fiscalizer of the government, to be a bulwark for democracy, at ang esensya kasi ng Philippine democracy natin, divided government. Because divided government means no one has the monopoly of power and divided government is supposed to be a more accountable government.

MALOU: At meron pa pong naganap din na dapat maalala. Dalawang impeachment trial. Una, laban kay dating Pangulong Joseph Estrada, at kay dating Chief Justice Corona, ano po. At pinasa din po iyong batas ng RA 6713 Code of Conduct and Ethical Standards for Public Officials and Employees ng nasirang si Senator Rene Saguisag.

So marami pong nagawa iyong Senado, tama kayo doon. Pero sa composition ngayon ng Senado, parang tila iyong iba, may pagdududa. Sabi nyo nga, dalawang pares na magkapatid. Isang pares na nanay at anak, at mukhang baka uulit na naman iyan sa susunod na serya ng eleksyon kasi puro mga comeback kids iyong mga nananalo. So, nag-iba po ba iyong quality, iyong mix ng Senate natin sa sinasabing august chamber ng ating brightest and most principled and most responsive and responsible leaders? Iba na yata ang Senado.

ARUGAY: Tingnan lang natin. If you will look at the composition of the Senate, sabihin na natin post-Martial Law. Noong '88, iyong unang eleksyon and the first time we were in the Senate, we elected senators. Ikumpara mo doon sa composition ng Senado ngayon. Not to offend the present composition of the Senate. Malaki iyong difference in terms of qualifications, credentials, and hindi ko sinasabi na lahat. What we're saying is, nag-iba talaga iyong naging batayan. Tingin ko, mga botante sa pagpili at naging iba na rin iyong, iba kasi iyong sinabi, “Eh nahalal naman kami, anong magagawa namin kung hinahalal kami ng Pilipino?” Pero, ang napansin namin over time, iyong supposedly qualified to assume the roles of the Senate, of a senator, they are not, they themselves don't agree to run for office. Kasi nakikita naman nila, popularity contest naman. Ah, kailangan you have to have the right surname to run and you have to have an electoral war chest. And because of that, iyong nananalo at iyong ino-offer nila iyong sarili nila, nagiging limited to those who are well-born and well-to-do.

MALOU: Correct. So, iyong mga may pera, mayroong popularity, at mayroon ding political connections. Ano po? Iyon iyong sinasabi ninyo. Ano iyong papel ngayon ng dalawang pirasong opposition senators natin, iyong minority? Senator Koko Pimentel at Senator Risa Hontiveros. Did they gain or did they lose ground dito sa parang musical chairs na naganap?

ARUGAY: May narinig tayong mga balita that some are mulling, some are exploring, possibly joining the minority while hindi pa formally, sige, kahit iyong sa minority na ako. But, what we might see in the coming months and in the new session, after SONA this year, is that some of, perhaps, the minority within the supermajority, hindi iyong minority ng Senado, iyong pito, some of them might even you know, be more relatively independent. But, ang sinasabi ng ilan sa kanila ngayon, iyong pito, iyong Magic Seven na sinasabi, is that they will approach this issue by issue. So, we might see Senator Zubiri might have different positionings now because he's no longer, he doesn't need to follow instructions anymore and he might have to find his own voice on issues, no?

MALOU: Okay, ngayon, ang isa pong naging impact, one, syempre, iyong palitan ng chairmanship ng mga komite. So, ibig sabihin nito, iyong mga dating panig kay Zubiri nawalan ng pwesto, at nagkaroon ng bagong pwesto ngayon iyong bumuto kay Senator Chiz Escudero. Pero, ano po iyong scan ninyo? Qualified? Competent? O talagang may karanasan ba sa kanilang bagong chairmanship, iyong bagong pasok na team?

ARUGAY: Sa Senado kasi ang kalakaran dyan, spoils, everyone gets. Kasi nga napakaliit nilang body, hindi katulad yan sa House, that the majority of members of the House don't have chairmanships of committees. Sa Senado, it's almost you know, given. Lahat, isa, and in fact, parang meron pang parang internal rule na you don't even need to be a member of the committee. You can actually attend hearings sometimes, allowed. And, in terms of chairmanship, I think, sa tingin ko, ano na lang iyon, while may power, of course, iyong committee chair, but this is something that must be mutually agreed upon by the members of this supermajority, and of course, with the approval of the Senate president.

MALOU: At dahil naman naka-recess, so parang, in effect, bale wala. Unless mag-continue ng mga hearings iyong mga komite.

ARUGAY: Right. Definitely. Kaya nga iyong timing, medyo interesting. Kasi pwede naman itong ma-settle sana, kaya lang parang ang pinapalabas, hindi na makapaghintay, kailangan nang baguhin iyong liderato, now na. And it really tells you na may naubusan ng pasensya with the previous leadership. And it's quite interesting, kailangan din bantayan ano iyong gagawin nitong bagong majority, bagong bloc within the supermajority? How will they use this supposed recess?

MALOU: Isa-isahin muna natin, para lang sa benefit ng mga tao. Senate President Pro Tempore si Senator Jingoy Estrada, in place of Senator Loren Legarda. Senator Francis Tolentino is now the Senate Majority Floor Leader, at pinalitan niya si Senator Joel Villanueva. Ngayon, may mga committee ho na magiging mahalaga. Kung sakaling i-aassume natin na ito pa rin as is where is pagdating ng pasok nila ulit sa Hunyo, ano po? So, Senator Angara from Committee on Finance, Committee on Justice and Human Rights. Dapat po ba?

ARUGAY: Alam niyo, minsan iyong committee chairmanship, sabi ko nga, hindi siya ganoon kahalaga kasi taga-shepherd lang siya. But, for example, during the conduct of the hearings, particularly in the Senate, kitang-kita natin that even non-chairs and individual senators can really make an impact and can, hindi naman drive the agenda, but could really voice their concerns. So, and in fact, kahit iyong mga nasa minority, they are able to do that, despite not being chairs of certain committees.

MALOU: Magiging mahalaga po, however, kung sila ay re-eleksyonista, no po? So, committee chairs would be important. Halimbawa po, si Senator Pia Cayetano, Committee on Energy. Si Senator Nancy Binay, Committee on Sustainable Goals. Mukhang take two na si Senator Nancy, so hindi na kailangan ng parang network. Si Senator JV, Committee on Local Government. Si Senator Lito Lapid, Committee on Tourism, pero parang may anak siya yata na kasama doon sa mga ilang tourism agencies. Parang may potential conflict of interest yata doon.

Si Senator Imee, kapatid, ate ni President BBM, from Constitutional Amendments Committee, ngayon ay parang Urban Planning, Housing, and Resettlement. Posibleng mahalaga din, pero parang may implication kasi doon sa mga panukalang batas at mga programang priority ng ating gobyerno.

Ang Senate Committee on Ethics and Privileges, si Senator Francis Tolentino pa rin. Si Senator Raffy Tulfo, Public Services. Si Senator Joel, bale napunta sa Labor Employment and Human Resources Development. Si Senator Mark Villar, Committee on Government Corporations and Public Enterprises. Pero again, ito po, may sinasabi, na parang ang Villar companies, napakaraming investment at interest sa real estate construction, etc. So, iyon po ba ay kasama dapat sa sinisilip? Potential, real, apparent conflict of interest?

ARUGAY: Definitely, kasi public office is a public trust. So, while these leaderships are given to the senators, ang kailangan bantayan how they perform supposedly these functions. And I think it's up to us, citizens, civil society groups, independent media, to give information and to expose if there are certain, supposedly glaring conflicts of interest, and kumbaga, parang may demokrasya pa rin tayo and it's not as if hindi tayo, pinipigilan tayo to do those things.

But, I think for some of these senators, especially those who are up for re-election and those who are also thinking about 2028, hindi lang 2025, kasi syempre advance mag-isip iyong iba. We must always analyze how they perform and their behavior towards that goal. Kasi nga, sabi ko nga, kung senador ka, isang step na lang. Kasi nationally elected ka rin, di ba? Isang step ka na lang to a higher national office.

MALOU: Okay. Parang independent kingdoms. I-assume natin na as is where is ito. Pagpasok ng Third Regular Session, ano po, ng Kongreso, ano iyong mangyayari sa legislative agenda at priorities ng Pangulo? Kasi naglista siya ng halos dalawang dosena, ano po, noong nakaraang State of the Nation address. Tila mabagal ang usad sa Senado. Pero sa House ay parang fast break at nagpasa-pasa na ng mga batas.

ARUGAY: Iyon ang kasaysayan noong dalawang chambers of Congress natin. So if you would look at even before, tingnan nyo po iyong mga post-Martial Law presidencies. Parating ganoon iyong House, mabilis and talagang, "yes, Mr. President." Parang ganoon parati iyong naging historical role.

And the Senate has always been the more conservative na, "Teka muna, baka kailangan pag-aralan pa." And given the co-equal nature of the two, kaya hindi napapasa ang batas because the House has passed its version, iyong Senate hindi pa, o kaya ‘pag pinasa naman ng Senado, i-reconcile pa through the Bicameral Conference Committee na marami din hokus-pokus na nangyayari diyan. Iyan iyong medyo, sa tingin ko, kailangan, kung sakali man darating tayo sa point na kailangan pag-aralan ulit how legislation works, siguro magandang tignan iyong role na ito kasi, it's quite, you know, it's quite, minsan may nangyayari sa BCC na parang gulat na lang tayo pagdating ng totoong batas, e, teka, parang ang layo.

MALOU: Bicameral ano po. Professor, nag-aral din kayo ng mga ganap sa politika sa iba't ibang bansa. Pero dito sa ASEAN, sabihin na natin na at least iyong tatlong bansa, Indonesia, Thailand, Cambodia, parang tila pareho iyong nangyayari dito sa Pilipinas. Ano sa tingin ninyo? Tayo ba'y medyong sliding back sa demokrasya natin dito sa region?

ARUGAY: By all metrics, umaatras tayo, Malou. Ngayon, pwedeng sabihin na, “Ano iyan, mga mga panlabas na pagtingin.” Kasi kapag tinanong mo naman iyong Pilipino dito, kung satisfied kayo sa democracy, 8 out of 10, 80%. Ang issue naming mga political scientists doon sa survey na iyon is hindi naman tinatanong sa respondents ano iyong tingin nila, ano iyong ibig sabihin ng democracy for them. So, hindi naman dinefine bago tanungin, "Satisfied ba kayo sa demokrasya ng Pilipinas?" So, and in fact, may surveys na nagsasabi, 'pag tinanong mo iyong tao, Filipinos, ano ang ibig sabihin nila ng democracy, malayo doon sa pagkaintindi natin na democracy is about not simply majority rule, but also rule of law, human rights, accountability, transparency, walang ganoon. Sa kanila, parang ang lumalabas na pinakamaigting na definition ng democracy is effective governance, leadership, mabilis na aksyon.

And this is something to do. Service delivery with our history. Doon sa nagsasabi na iyong rehiyon natin ngayon, itong Southeast Asia, totoo nga, ang daming to quote 'yung mga Gen Z's natin, "Nepo Babies" na nagiging leaders. Si Prabowo, dating son-in-law ni Suharto, si Hun Manet, anak ni Hun Sen. Pero tayo yata sa Pilipinas iyong may record of the most number of progenies to become presidents. Nakaka-tatlo na po tayo. So, tatlo na po na anak ng dating presidente ang naging presidente. At kung matutuloy man iyong trend na iyon, malamang baka may pang-apat pa sa 2028. And ang ibig sabihin nito is that ang pathway to power, to the road to Malacañang is having the right surname more than competence, qualifications, and the ability to perform the mandate and protect the Constitution and democracy.

MALOU: Okay. Prof. Aries, ang tingin niyo po ba si Vice President Sara Duterte at ang kanyang pamilya ay nag-gain o nag-lose dito sa line change sa Senate? Sila ba iyong medyo dagdag-poder, impluwensya, o nabawasan dahil nagpalitan ng liderato sa Senado?

ARUGAY: Sa tingin ko, kasi ang Senado, even before this leadership change, talagang kung titignan natin, it really, just like the House, it really follows, ano 'yung Malacañang line. And unfortunately for the Duterte dynasty, because of their own decisions, hindi sila iyong nasa Malacañang ngayon, di ba? What could have been? Di ba? Iyon naman iyong ano doon, what could have been if, for example, Vice President Sara Duterte did not decide to step to becoming a vice presidential candidate. Baka, who knows. Hindi natin alam kung sino iyong mananalo sa eleksyon. Kaya lang, sa tingin ko, for now, mukhang politically, if you will analyze it, dehado. Even if you have Senators Bong Go, Senators De La Rosa, may mga dating PDP-Laban din. Sen. Francis Tolentino, for example, ang totoong, sa tingin ko, ano lang ito, this is just a prelude, kasi ang totoong magiging recalibration ng power blocs and their supposed dynastic loyalties — House-Marcos ba, House-Duterte ba, or others — is the 2025 elections. Doon natin makikita iyon, pagkatapos ng 2025, elections, doon natin makikita iyong power, iyong dispensation at iyong power allocation between supposedly, kasi si mismo, si Sen. Zubiri na nagsabi na this marks the end of the alliance. Siya mismo sinabi ngayon in one interview. So, what happens to the Senate now and the elections in 2025 portends the power disparities and the power alignments of these two dynasties that are ruling the country, right?

MALOU: At dapat po natin banggitin, ang bailiwick ni Sen. Zubiri ay sa Bukidnon, sa Mindanao, ano po. At samantala, si Sen. Chiz Escudero ay Sorsogon, Luzon. So ang sinasabi nila, ang parang real tilt factor sa pagkapanalo ni President Rodrigo Duterte sa malakas na performance sa eleksyon ni Vice President Sara Duterte ay ang boto sa Mindanao. Ito po kaya ay maging concern ng kung ano man iyong maging alignment later on ng BBM-anointed na kandidato.

ARUGAY: Totoo iyon and in fact, sa pag-aaral ng mga political scientists sa bansa natin when they analyzed the 2022 elections, ang pinaka-clear talaga at pinaka-solid na basehan ng voting choice, geography. So, iyong sinasabi natin mga baluartes, north-south. Kaya nga noong nagkaroon ng Uniteam, tapos iyong boksing. Kasi, iyong two solid blocs na merong command vote in a huge part of the country napagsama. But, sabi nga, sa politika, sabi natin kanina, walang permanenteng kaibigan at kaalyado, interes lamang. At makikita natin whether iyong interes ng dalawang bloke na ito ay pareho pa rin. At kung magkaiba na, then we might see a north versus south command vote in the coming elections.

MALOU: Ngayon, sa mga partido po, ang Partido Federal ng Pilipinas ni President BBM ay actually, kakarampot ang mga miyembro. Although, of course, he now heads the parang, majority coalition in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. Pero, iyong kanyang grupo ay parang medyo kakaunti pa lang. Walang masyado pang elected officials silang miyembro. Ang Nationalist People's Coalition, nag-partner sa kanila. Ang Nationalista Party ng mga Villar, nag-partner sa kanila. Pero, ano po iyong epekto nitong realignment sa Senate at sa 2025 ay dapat silipin natin. Sa PDP-Laban ni Pangulong Duterte, PDP-Laban ni Sen. Koko Pimentel at ng Liberal Party.

ARUGAY: Sabi ko nga, kung titignan mo iyong kasaysayan ng politika sa atin, iyong parties at party labels, parang damit na hinuhubad, sinusuot ulit, hinuhubad, sinusuot ulit, ibang damit naman ngayon. Kaya nga hirap na hirap kami minsan mag-aral ng legislative politics kasi may nakikita kami iyong politiko, ang party affiliation niya more than one. So, for example, Lakas/NPC/NP. And, for example, President Arroyo, when she was president, she was a member of six political parties, no? So, ang hirap noon kasi dito lang ako naka, sa ibang bansa, wala pong ganoon. Kasi, isang partido ka lang, and if you switch parties, some, in some countries, you even lose your position. Kasi, hindi ka naman hinalal ng tao dahil sa 'yo eh pero dahil ikaw ay miyembro ng partido, the party looms larger than the individual personality. Sa atin, baliktad, ang nagbibigay ng agency sa partido, iyong mga personalidad.

So, para lang talaga siyang window dressing. And, I think, magandang tignan iyong party affiliations, but that should not limit us in really analyzing the lines that, and the ties that bind our politicians. So, malamang sa 2025 elections, may coalition of parties, pero malamang they'll come up with a term. Coalition for something. New and improved. Parang ganoon.

MALOU: Parang sabon lang ho. Ano? Anyway, so, Professor Aries, ano iyong, inyong nakikitang scenarios? Halimbawa, iyong dalawang pirasong minority ngayon ay sumanib. Iyong pitong bumoto kay Sen. Migz Zubiri, magiging siyam. Tenuous kung paano makakakuha ng majority vote kung sakali na may mga ilan din pa silang kaibigan na nasa kabila, sa panig ni Sen. Chiz Escudero. Ano ang fiscalizing na nakikita ninyong role ng minority o ng expanded minority?

ARUGAY: Sa tingin ko, ang magiging epekto niyan, baka magkaroon tayo ng mas maraming debate sa Senado. Baka mas maraming mag-raise ng hands at sinasabing, “Teka, meron akong issue sa ano.”
At baka mabawasan iyoong Committee on Silence. Iyong parang yes na lang ng yes. Because some senators might think na, "Teka, e, unang-unang pa-graduate na ako, what's in it for me? So, ano na iyong gusto kong gawin at gusto kong sabihin?” And so, next we might see, which is good because supposedly, the Senate is a parliamentary body. Parliamentary meaning this is where debates and deliberations. Hindi nga natin nakikita iyon for the past few years, unfortunately. We are not seeing the marketplace of ideas that we used to see in Senate deliberations. Kaya sa tingin ko, iyon iyong hopefully, medyo optimistic itong prediction na 'to na magkakaroon ng mas marami.

Because some senators might think that, “Teka, mukhang dahil hindi ko naman na kailangan mag-follow na instructions, wala naman akong kailangan ng ano iyong linya, baka dapat sabihin ko na iyong gusto kong sabihin at hindi ko na kailangan manahimik kasi ayokong mapahiya, ayokong may masabi at ma-criticize man iyong government in power or iyong majority."

Sa tingin ko, iyong second effect naman niya, itong ano na ito, is that, lalo sa tingin ko, magiging, sa tingin ko, mas magiging difficult sa Senate to deliver. Kasi nga, mas lumaki iyong espasyo for plural views, for different views. And kung sisingilin natin, for example, si Sen. Escudero, malinaw iyong posisyon niya, for example, against Cha-cha. So kung sakaling magpalit siya ng isip, medyo kailangan siguro magpaliwanag. At kung pagbabago ng isip, si Senate president at ibang mga Senate leaders on their previous policy positions, I think it's incumbent on us, meaning ordinary citizens, to demand explanations at the very least. Bakit nagbago ng ihip ng hangin? Ano po ba naging basehan ng posisyon nyo? Prinsipyo po ba or ibang criteria?

MALOU: Pero sa inyong silip as Prof. Aries, saan ba nagkulang iyong Committee of Silence na sana ay nagpahayag? Anong mga issue ang dapat ngayon ay magsalita ang ating mga senador at mag-fiscalize o suriin ang mga panukala ng Executive Branch?

ARUGAY: Sa tingin ko marami. I mean, for example, this is a Senate that allowed Maharlika. This is a Senate that has agreed to even contemplate on Charter change. Sinabi na nga ng posisyon, na-quote nga na iyong position paper ng aming departamento, even it was being used or sa tingin namin, misused, na ang sinabi namin doon, if the context is correct to change the Charter, ito iyong mga sigurong dapat tignan. Parang nagamit ng ibang senador o ng ilang senador na, “Ah, tignan mo, pro-Cha-cha iyong UP Department of Political Science”. Kailangan may konteksto po doon. Kasi sa tingin din namin, hindi naman perpekto iyong Konstitusyon.

Certain other issues na sa tingin ko, the Senate could have acted more as a fiscalizer, and I think ito iyong dilemma that occasioned the leadership change. Kaya nga, iyong dilemma na iyon, maaaring nandyan pa rin siya with this new majority within the supermajority. But those that are not part, iyong mga na-displace, baka they are now emancipated from that dilemma.

MALOU: So something could come of it. Parang tipong merong freedom for those na hindi naman dati makapagsalita. But also, something really parang worth watching out for. Ano iyong dilemma na kakaharapin ni Sen. President Chiz Escudero? Mamanahin ba niya iyong dilemma ng assert the independence of the Senate and follow instructions?

ARUGAY: And I think may opportunity sa kanya to show the country some form of leadership and also for the other senators. Sa tingin ko, minsan kailangan i-remind natin iyong sarili natin that when we elect leaders, pinapahiram lang natin iyong kapangyarihan sa kanila. Supposedly, dapat may pananagutan kung paano ito ginagamit. Sana mabawasan iyong pagiging personal. When senators explain themselves, minsan nakukulangan ako noong, parang nawawala iyong pagiging representative niyo. Nagiging parang ako, my feelings, my interests, puro mine. Pero supposedly, representatives are trustees, they voice the people's voice. They might have their own but given they're public servants, it's the public interest that should loom large rather than the personal interest.

MALOU: Very good. Pero sa huli, ano sa tingin ninyo ang test case issues para kay Sen. Chiz Escudero at sa siguro newly emancipated Sen. Migz Zubiri? Anong mga issue na sila dapat sukatin?

ARUGAY: Sa tingin ko, very critical iyong current issues sa South China Sea. Importante iyon. Importante siya kasi malinaw iyong sentimiento ng publiko dito. Malinaw iyong sentimiento ng karamihan. Malinaw iyong sentimiento ng mga institution at hindi ko alam kung anong sentimiento iyong nire-reflect nung ibang mga senador, kaninong interest iyong pinoprotektahan nila. So, unang-una iyong foreign policy natin, very important.

Second, of course, iyong fate ng Cha-cha. Kasi, let's say natutulog lang siya ngayon, pero I do not see that this will die a natural death just like previous Charter change attempts. Kasi nga, ang tingin namin ito iyong pinaka-seryoso.

There might be issues related to the economy and energy security, food security, certain gut issues that affect Filipinos. So, kung baga parang sa ordinary Pilipino, anong paki namin dyan sa leadership change na iyan. Ang mahal ng mga bilihin, ang mahal ng kuryente, ang mahal ng bigas, magla-La Niña, magkakaroon ng maraming bagyo. So, how does the Senate respond under the new leadership to some of the gut issues faced by an economic hardship faced by ordinary Filipinos? Sa tingin ko, may mga ibang batas that are supposed to increase government accountability and transparency na kailangan din nilang pagtuunan ng pansin.

MALOU: FOI, ano po? At iyong Anti-Dynasty Law.

ARUGAY: Tama. Ang tagal na po niyan. Mukhang puro seen na lang, seen. Sa tingin ko napaka-importante. Kaya nga, minsan ang challenge na sinasabi ko sa class ko, “Siguro magiging open iyong mga tao sa Charter change kung magpasa muna sila ng Anti-Dynasty Law”. Kaya mag-usap kung babaguhin talaga natin iyong Constitution natin.

MALOU: Iyon po bang budget, iyong General Appropriations Act na tila dumami ang mga nakalakip na mga ayuda programs at iyong pagbiyahe ng ating Pangulo at iba pang mga opisyal, dapat ho bang silipin din iyon? Kasi lalo na at pababa ang collection ng revenues or non-revenue o resources natin.

ARUGAY: Tama po iyon. I think medyo mabait iyong mga kababayan natin that allow such leeway financially na parang sige, okay lang. Maglaan ng pondo dyan. Maglaan ng pondo dito. Pero kung baga kung tatanungin mo, wala naman tayong money-bearing trees. Saan mo kukunin iyan?

Hindi tulad sa ibang bansa, tinatanong, o sige gusto natin gastusan ‘to, gastusan iyan. Pero saan kukunin iyong pera? Kasi po, iyong mga kababayan natin, kahit ano pong mangyari, mukhang sa atin at sa ating kukunin iyan. Through taxes, through everything. Hindi iyan pwedeng may pagkuhanan ng iba. So I think, iyong prudence sa fiscal spending and which supposedly historically the Senate has done, medyo hindi nabibigyan at natutuunan ng pansin sa kasalukuyan.

MALOU: Sa panghuli, Professor Aries, kayo ba'y napapagod na, natutuwa o nagigitla sa mga recent na nangyayari sa politika natin?

ARUGAY: Sabi ko nga, 'pag nagtuturo ako ng Philippine politics, it remains a spectator sport. While we want, sana, Philippine politics to be really people-oriented, iyong people dini-define natin, it continues to be an elite affair. It continues to be a game of musical chairs. Ngunit sa tingin ko, nakakapagod for us pero parating may pag-asa. Kasi kung wala pong pag-asa, marahil ay katulad na rin po ako ng napakaraming Pilipino who voted with their feet. And some Filipinos really chose to stay in their country. They love their country. The youth has so much potential as an agent of political change. Kaya importante po siguro, kahit maaga pa na i-remind natin ang mga sarili natin bilang ordinaryong Pilipino at citizens na may power tayo to change politics. Itong parating ng mga eleksyon, kaya napaka-importante po na bumoto, magparehistro at makilahok sa mga prosesong political. Kasi po, the more that we are apathetic at wala tayong paki, ganyan naman iyan parati. In fact, mas lalo natin ini-empower iyong marahil hindi natin gustong i-empower.

MALOU: So, Professor Aries, maraming salamat po at bantayan po natin ano, pagbalik nitong Senado under Senate President Chiz Escudero kung ano iyong magiging ganap at ano iyong magiging options ni Senator Migz Zubiri. Maraming salamat po!