The shape of things to come in the West PHL Sea  

The resupply of the marine detachment on the BRP Sierra Madre on Ayungin Shoal has been the subject of much media attention and jubilation, as Filipinos celebrated how a small civilian boat successfully ran the informal blockade of the China Coast Guard.
 
But while it demonstrates a shining moment of Filipino seamanship, we should not hold any illusions that such   a small victory represents the future of our fortunes in  the West Philippine Sea. If anything, the exercise also illustrated more vividly how tenuous our hold is on Ayungin Shoal. The full media coverage of the battered hulk that serves as the last line of defense against Chinese incursions only stressed the point that it is only  a matter of time before the old lady collapses into the unyielding sea.
 
It is this point that China sees all too clearly, which is why it has decided to press even more strongly against the Philippines at this particular location. As a military outpost, the BRP Sierra Madre poses absolutely no threat; the rusting ship daily threatens its own marine detachment far more than any Chinese ship or sailor. But it is of symbolic significance because its position directly challenges that of the Chinese fortification on Mischief Reef, and it is one of the last few reef atolls whose enclosed lagoons are potentially useful as natural harbors that can be used to strategically extend the range of Chinese ships. Like predators circling their dying prey, Chinese ships can be expected to watch patiently until the Philippines is forced to abandon the position. And keeping up the pressure helps.
 
The Philippines can expect that pressure to build steadily in the coming years. Since 2008, China's maritime law enforcement agencies have surely and steadily stepped up their “rights protection campaign” in order to discourage and dislodge Southeast Asian marine resource users from the area within the Nine Dashed Lines. They have demonstrated  a willingness to forcefully (and perhaps recklessly) use their ships against other smaller vessels, exemplified by the ramming of Vietnamese ships attempting to prevent unauthorized Chinese petroleum exploration in disputed waters. They have repeatedly threatened safe navigation by deliberately “crossing the bow,” or placing their vessels directly in another's path, not only of Southeast Asian ships but even those of the US Navy. Chinese ships have intimidated Indonesian coast guard vessels and shadowed passing US and Indian naval vessels, to stress their control and dominance in the South China Sea. And there is nothing to show that they intend to let up in these efforts any time soon.
 
Since the Philippines has offended Chinese sensibilities by an arbitration suit, done nothing but to attract even more attention to China's maritime infractions, and worst of all for China, gotten the Americans and Japanese to become far more active in our maritime disputes than it would like, we should look forward to even more active maritime encounters that become less and less pleasant. China will adapt to the next Ayungin Shoal resupply mission with smaller ships, perhaps even more aircraft, to counter the not-too-subtle strategy of using civilian vessels. When BRP Sierra Madre eventually succumbs to nature and becomes an artificial reef, in its place a new Chinese offshore harbor will probably open for business, and its planners will probably set their sights on new acquisitions in either Sabina or Hasa-Hasa Shoal. These bases can then make it quite difficult to maintain the normal maritime supply routes to Philippine positions on Patag and Lawak Islands near Recto Bank, and from thence the largest islands of the Kalayaan.
 
If the Kalayaan Islands can only be resupplied by air, then their ability to act as an informal maritime defensive frontier, a role they performed very well from the 1970s until Mischief Reef was taken over, will be severely compromised. After all, the most Philippine important interests in that region have always been the marine resources west of Palawan. All these will come to pass as surely as the rise of China to regional prominence and maritime dominance, unless the Philippines begins imaginatively thinking out of the box right now and innovatively planning for the shape of things to come.