Philippines narrows 2024 economic growth target, widens 2025-2028

The inter-agency Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) on Monday narrowed its economic growth target for 2024, with expansion now expected to hit a high of 6.5% versus its earlier expectation of 7.0%.

During its meeting on Monday, the DBCC said the Philippines amended its economic growth targets to 6.0% to 6.5% from its earlier target range of 6.0% to 7.0%, with Finance Secretary Ralph Recto admitting that he did not think growth could hit 7.0% this year.

This comes as economic growth averaged 5.8% as of end-September, after hitting 5.2% in the third quarter which reflected a slowdown from 6.4% in the second quarter.

“Despite domestic challenges, we are optimistic that we can still attain our growth target for the year of 6.0 to 6.5%,” the DBCC said in a statement which was read by Budget Secretary Amenah Pangandaman in a press conference.

“In particular, we expect the Philippine economy to bounce back during the last quarter, given the anticipated increase in holiday spending, continued disaster recovery efforts, low inflation, and a robust labor market,” the statement added.

The DBCC on Monday also widened the band of its economic growth assumptions from 2025 to 2028 to range between 6.0% to 8.0%. It earlier set a target of 6.5% to 7.5% for 2025, and from 6.5% to 8.0% from 2026 to 2028.

Economic managers said the changes reflect “the anticipated impact of structural reforms and evolving domestic and global uncertainties.”

“To achieve these targets, we remain committed to implementing reforms outlined in the Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028. These include accelerating infrastructure investments, enhancing the ease of doing business, and boosting national competitiveness,” the DBCC said.

The DBCC likewise adjusted its inflation forecast this year to range from 3.1% to 3.3%, narrower than the 3.0% to 4.0% range announced in June, and still within the government’s target range of 2.0% to 4.0%.

“We are determined to maintain price stability by keeping inflation low and stable amid easing monetary conditions, improving labor market conditions, and productivity-enhancing structural reforms,” it said.

The agency maintained its inflation assumption for 2025 to 2028 to 2.0% to 4.0%. The last print was recorded at 2.3% in October bringing the year-to-date figure to 3.3%.—LDF, GMA INtegrated News