Inflation could fall below 2% in Q1 2024 — Diokno

Inflation, or the rate of increase in the prices of goods and services, will likely fall below the government’s target band in the first quarter of 2024, Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno said Wednesday.

Earlier this month, the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) lowered its inflation assumption for 2023 to 5% to 6% from its previous outlook of 5% to 7% announced in April.

This was due to the continued decline in inflation, which clocked in at 6.1% in May from 6.6% in April, bringing the year-to-date rate to 7.5%.

It was the fourth time that inflation dipped from a peak of 8.7% in January and the lowest since July 2022’s 6.4%.

At the Kapihan sa Manila Bay forum on Wednesday, Diokno said that inflation "will be within the band of 2%–4% by the fourth quarter of this year."

“In the first quarter of next year, I think inflation will be below 2%,” he said.

The DBCC earlier said that inflation would return to the target range of 2% to 4% by 2024 as the administration, through the Inter-Agency Committee on Inflation and Market Outlook (IAC-IMO), provided proactive measures to address the rising commodity prices.

“Hindi naman ibig sabihin na bumaba ang inflation, hindi na tataas ang mga bilihin. Ang ibig sabihin lang ay ‘yung pagtaas ng presyo ay hindi kasing taas nung before,” the Finance chief said.

(When inflation goes down, it does not mean that prices are no longer going up. It only means that the rate of increase in prices is not as high as before.)

Diokno said that petroleum prices are already going down after skyrocketing due to the Russia-Ukraine war.

“Nakaka-adapt na ang mga bansa (Countries are already adapting),” he said. —VBL, GMA Integrated News