Philippines may lose 1.1 million MT of dressed pork if ASF spread continues —group

The Philippine Veterinary Drug Association on Wednesday warned that the country is projected to lose 1.1 million metric tons (MT) of dressed pork if the spread of the African Swine Fever virus continues and nothing is done to prevent it.

PVDA president Dr. Eugene Mende, speaking at the International Farmers Summit at the SMX Convention Center, said the loss is based on projections done by international epidemiologists and local experts.

As of January 13, 2020, he said, 178,159 hogs or 1.7% of the total hog population in the country have been culled. Only 29,709 of them were sick.

“Because of that scenario na walang bakuna sa ASF at talagang ganito karami ang pinapatay ng ASF sa backyard, talagang with this number of potential na aapektuhan ng ASF, ganun ang kakulangan ng karne natin sa Pilipinas kung hindi natin aagapan,” Mende said.

Worst-case scenario

If the disease continues to spread and because many hog raisers are avoiding raising hogs for now, Mende projects that as a worst-case scenario, the country could lose 7.85 million pigs or 62% of the country’s pig population.

“Pag wala tayong gagawing kontrol, 80% ng backyard tatamaan. Eh 65% ng population natin ay backyard,” Mende explained.

The loss, Mende said, is equivalent to 1.1 million MT of dressed pork. The loss is due to not just to the depopulation of hogs in affected areas, but also the fear of hog raisers to continue breeding hogs.

Mende said that if 1.1 million MT of pork is lost, the government and industry leaders must look for sources for 800,000 MT of pork. The 300,000-MT difference is due to the expectation that many consumers will turn to pork alternatives in the meantime.

Mende also warned that with the decreasing supply of pork, “Nakikita natin na mamahal ang presyo ng baboy kasi wala na tayong source. Kung kukuha ka naman ng import, kulang na rin ang global market.”

Global deficit, Mende said, is at 16.5 billion kilos.

Farmgate prices now hover between P90 and 105 per kilo. But Mende said the price could go as high as P115 to 120 per kilo if the situation is not addressed. — BM, GMA News