Current top Senate vote-getters could drag PHL’s political risk score — Fitch Solutions

With administration allies poised to bag most of the senatorial seats in the midterm elections, Fitch Solutions Macro Research flagged that this could eventually lead to a decline in the Philippines' political risk score.

In a commentary sent to reporters by Fitch Solutions on Wednesday, the agency said the latest results of the Senatorial elections could drag the Long-Term Political Risk Index score of the Philippines.

"[R]educed opposition within the Senate lowers the potential for 'checks and balances' on Duterte's administration and may over time see a decline in our Long-Term Political Risk Index score of 65.4 out of 100 for the country," the commentary read.

As of 2 p.m. on May 15, partial and unofficial results of the 2019 Senatorial elections show that no opposition candidates made it into the Top 12.

The closest, outgoing Senator Benigno "Bam" Aquino IV, was ranked 14th with almost 14 million votes.

"The elections reinforce the significance of family dynasties within Philippine politics as well, highlighting the still large influence they have over the country," said Fitch Solutions.

"Duterte's daughter, Sara Duterte, will have increased her chances of
succeeding her father's presidency after her HNP alliance-backed Senate candidates performed well," it added.

Fitch Solutions likewise noted that Maria Imelda "Imee" Marcos, daughter of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos and graft convict Imelda Marcos, was among the candidates currently in the top 12, as per partial and unofficial election results.

"Similarly, Imee Marcos stands eighth in the Senate vote based on current results, which will mean she will gain a seat, and is the daughter of former president and dictator Ferdinand Marcos," it said.

Fitch Solutions noted, however, that the current lineup could be a positive for the reforms planned by the administration under President Rodrigo Duterte.

"The strong show of support for Duterte will both give him the confidence and ability to push ahead with his reform programme," it said.

"Duterte will hope that with increased support in the Senate, his reforms and fiscal plans will face less obstacles. Key reforms include shifting towards a federal system of governance, cutting corporate tax rates and the reinstating of the death penalty," elaborated Fitch Solutions.

Looking ahead, Fitch Solutions said the final results are likely to drive Duterte to push through with this reforms, specifically his federal governance plans.

"Duterte will also face increased domestic pressure over his relations with China, with the majority of Philippine voters distrusting of growing Chinese influence," it explained.

"This, along with slowing economic growth, will provide challenges for Duterte over the final half of his term as he looks to secure his legacy via an appointed successor," the agency added. — BM, GMA News