Global uncertainties to hit PHL’s upper middle income aspiration

Global uncertainties could dampen the Philippines’ prospects of achieving upper middle income status this year, the World Bank said Monday.

Trade tensions and uncertainties about global interest rates could have a negative impact on the Philippines, said Andrew Mason, World Bank acting chief economist for East Asia and the Pacific Region.

“We’re in a very uncertain global environment at the moment,” he told reporters in a press conference in Taguig City.

The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) is betting that the Philippine will likely be an upper middle income country this year because of sustained economic growth.

An upper middle-income country has a gross national income per capita of between $3,956 and $12,235, according to the World Bank.

As of 2018, the Philippines is a lower middle income country with a GNI per capita of between $1,006 and $3,955.

“We’ve got a trade conflict between the US and China [and] what happens in the Philippines will be affected by whether the US Fed continues to raise interest rates or not,” Mason said.

“The downside risks associated with the global economic environment are strengthening and we may see some softening of economic performance in the next year,” he added.

Mason noted, however, that the Philippines could achieve its per GNI capita income goal through sustained economic growth. He did not say when this could happen.

“First of all the Philippines, over the last decade, has had a really outstanding growth performance. It's been above the average for developing East Asia which ... was above other developing regions,” he said.

This year, the World Bank expects the Philippine economy to grow by 6.5 percent, from its previous outlook of 6.7 percent.

The economy expanded by 6.2 percent in 2018, the slowest in three years since it grew by 5.8 percent in 2015. —VDS, GMA News