Metrobank sees April inflation at 2.8%, the slowest pace so far in 2013

The rise in consumer prices may have settled below 3 percent last month as costs of gasoline and major food items were substantially lower, according to the research arm of Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. In its latest "Weekly Views from the Metro," Metrobank Research said it sees annual inflation in April “to come in at 2.8 percent,” the slowest pace so far in the year. A 2.8 percent rise in prices of consumer goods was also recorded in November and June of last year. “Inflation is expected to have further slowed in April, as local oil and most food items posted lower prices during the month,” said Mabellene Reynaldo, research analyst at Metrobank. “Weak performance data from advanced economies during the period dampened global demand expectations, hence easing market prices,” she added. According to Metrobank Research, prices of food items generally declined during the month, except for pork and some fruits whose prices have gone up due to higher demand. “Local oil prices have been declining since February, as global oil demand forecasts continue to be lowered with weak data from US and China,” said Reynaldo. Last month, oil firms implemented rollbacks in the price per liter of gasoline and diesel—decreasing by P2.55 and P2.92 on average, respectively, since the start of the year. Metrobank's forecast is within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas's projection that inflation may settle between 2.2 and 3.1 percent in April. “Expect inflation to move steadily with a downward bias, as weak global conditions continue to dampen prices,” said Reynaldo, noting the bank still sees full-year inflation at 3.6 percent. Last week, the Bangko Sentral revised its 2013 inflation forecast to 3.2 percent from 3.3 percent—or nearer the lower-end of its 3 to 5 percent target. Inflation slowed to 3.2 percent in March from the five-month high of 3.4 percent in February,  bringing the average to 3.2 percent in the first three months. Consumer prices rose by 3 percent in January. — VS, GMA News