Why are COVID-19 cases still rising in the Philippines?

A year into the pandemic, the Philippines, which has one of the longest lockdowns in the world, has more than 600,000 COVID-19 cases. This is among the highest number in Southeast Asia.

Just today, Saturday, the country again set a new record, with 7,999 new COVID-19 infections, bringing the total to 656,056.

So why are COVID-19 cases still rising in the Philippines? 

According to an episode of GMA’s “Need to Know” on Friday, there has been a spike in the number of positive cases this month alone, with the country logging some of its highest figures in a single day.

Among the factors that have been causing the surge, as mentioned on the episode, are the following:

1. New COVID-19 variants

OCTA Research fellow Guido David said the new COVID variants were among the reasons for the increase.

He said the Philippines marked the anniversary with around 5,000 cases per day. “Pabalik tayo sa situation noong August last year (we’re back to the situation in August last year).”

After a year, at least 24 municipalities in the Philippines had been declared COVID-free. Most of these places were located in Batanes, Sulu, and Aurora.

However, this was not the case in Metro Manila, where the new cases even tripled this month.

This rate of increase was unprecedented in the National Capital Region, said David. 

Meanwhile, Dr. John Wong of the Inter-Agency Task Force data analytics team described the new COVID variants.

He said the South African variant “makes the virus more resistant to the vaccine but does not increase transmissibility.”

The UK variant, meanwhile, increased transmissibility, and the Brazil one caused reinfection.

Meanwhile, in the Philippines, there is a “mutation of concern” known as P.3.

2. Complacency fatigue

Guido said that with the easing of restrictions, many Filipinos had begun thinking the virus was no longer a threat.

“Ang perception is, hindi naman threat itong virus. Mas threat iyong kabuhayan, boredom, depression,” said David.

[The perception is that the virus is not a threat. The bigger threats were on livelihood, boredom, depression.]

“Pwede na tayo magpuntang Boracay, mag-travel sa iba ibang lugar. May perception na wala na ’yung threat dahil maluwag na ’yung restriction,” he added.

[We can now go to Boracay, or travel to different places. There’s a perception that there is no more threat due to the relaxed restrictions.]

The complacency fatigue, however, should not be blamed entirely to the public.

For some people, going out “is really a need,” said economist and professor Agustin Arcenas. “Kailangan na niyang kumita kasi wala na silang pagkain (he needs to earn because they don’t have anything to eat).”

3. Creation of vaccines

David said knowing that vaccines had been created also made some people complacent.

However, he said the Philippines had only limited supplies, which made it far from herd immunity.

The Philippines is also one of the last countries in Southeast Asia to start a vaccination program.

As of airing of this report, the country has 600,000 doses of Sinovac, over 400,000 doses of AstraZeneca, and is still finalizing agreements with Pfizer.

The Philippines’ “vaccine czar,” Carlito Galvez, also went to India early this month to secure more through Novavax.

At an estimated 3,000 doses being administered daily, if this rate continues, the Philippines will achieve herd immunity after 44 years. 

Meanwhile, the Philippines has a vaccination fund worth PHP82.5 billion: PHP2.5 billion from the national budget, PHP10 billion from Bayanihan Act 2, and the rest are from loans.

4. Lack of testing

Last year, the government was panned by critics for its sluggish roll-out of COVID-19 tests. As of this week, more than 9 million tests have been conducted, with over 37,000 administered per day.

David, however, said that that testing rate was still not enough because many people were still transmitting the disease.

The Philippines’ positivity rate is 7.9%, which is higher than the ideal 5%, according to OCTA Research.

5. No unified contact tracing

The country’s contact tracing efforts also leave much to be desired.

With no unified contact tracing system, and local government units using their own methods, it’s difficult to get information on the infection at the national level.

“Nalilito na kami ngayon (we are now confused),” said another czar, this time for contact tracing, Baguio City Mayor Benjamin Magalong.

Magalong blamed private companies for trying to “outdo each other” and not acknowledging the national government’s contact tracing efforts.

At present, only seven close contacts are traced from an infected patient, far from the ideal 30-35 persons.

“I will have to admit, ito ang pinakamahina natin sa response sa COVID-19 ngayon,” said Presidential Spokesperson Harry Roque. 

[I will have to admit, this is where we are most lacking in our COVID-19 response these days.]

According to the World Health Organization, the Philippines has the highest number of new COVID-19 cases in the Western Pacific, but the national government says otherwise:

“We were excellent” and able to contain the disease compared to our wealthier neighbors with better medical facilities, according to Roque.

Arcenas, meanwhile, slammed the lack of analysis and enforcement of “draconian” policies in handling the crisis.

“Iyon lang ang alam na paraan sa tingin ko ng pamahalaan pagdating sa pag-address nitong pandemic,” he said.

[I think that’s the only way the government knows how to address this pandemic.]

David also raised concern that the increasing number of patients were causing a surge in hospitals and overworking medical frontliners.

In NCR, a curfew has been implemented anew from 10 p.m.-5 a.m., while other areas have their own localized lockdowns due to families contracting the disease.

“Dito talaga kinakailangan ng isang magaling na gobyerno (this is where we need an excellent government),” said Arcenas, noting that it should be able balance between economic need and the health crisis. – RC, GMA News