Here are 5 metrics to measure Philippines’ response to COVID-19

Taiwan, Vietnam, South Korea, and New Zealand are some of the countries that have been successful in containing the coronavirus disease.

Here in the Philippines, meanwhile, the total number of COVID-19 cases grew to 93,354 after a record-high 4,063 new infections were recorded by the Department of Health (DOH) on July 31.

On the same day, experts from the University of the Philippines OCTA research team said the number of COVID-19 cases in the country may reach 150,000 by the end of August.

According to the GMA Digital Specials report “Ano ang kailangang gawin para matalo ang COVID-19?”, as of July 26, the Philippines has the second highest number of COVID-19 cases in Southeast Asia and the highest number of active cases at 52,406.

Prof. Guido David of the UP OCTA research team said this rise in numbers may be attributed to factors such as increased mobility and asymptomatic cases not being detected, among other reasons.

According to Proj. Jomar Rabajante of the UP COVID-19 pandemic response team, there are five metrics that can be used to measure the Philippines’ response to COVID-19.

He scored each metric with 4 as the highest to 1 as the lowest.

Infection rate

This is the number of COVID-19 cases in the Philippines.

According to DOH, as of July 11, the country has a 1,657 per day 7-day moving average for COVID-19 cases, while we have a reproduction number of 1.15, which means a positive case can infect at least 1 person. The reproduction number should be less than 1 to contain the virus.

For Rabajante, the Philippines gets 1 for this metric.

“Dapat mas mababang mababa siya, near zero.”

Diagnostic testing and surveillance

This is the number of COVID-19 tests done and how fast the results are released.

Based on the GMA report, as of July 24, 1.3 million COVID-19 tests have been done in the Philippines. From July 18-24, average number of tests done per day are at 25,242.

According to the UP OCTA team, the ideal number of tests administered per day should be from 30,000 to 50,000, and asymptomatic patients should also be tested.

Prof. Ranjit Rye of UP OCTA said that while the Philippines had significantly increased its number of tests from May, it’s still not enough. He also said the increase in testing also had an effect on the rise in the number of cases.

The report said there’s also a need to speed up the release of test results from 7-8 days to 2-3 days.

According to Rabajante, if results are delayed, it can also affect the contact tracing efforts of the local government units.

This metric gets a 2, he said.

Case and contact investigations

This metric is about fast tracing of contacts of confirmed COVID-19 cases.

Contact tracing has been a challenge in the Philippines because of the lack of manpower.

According to the government, we have at least 69,098 tracers in around 5,215 tracing teams. The Department of Interior and Local Government wants to add 50,000 more.

Local Government Secretary Eduardo Año also said the Philippines had a high rate of tracing at 98.2% as of July 17.

According to Rabajante, their team wishes to recommend policies to the government but they can’t do so because of the lack of data.

He recommended that LGUs should have their own database, and a national database for contact tracing would also be a good idea.

He added it’s also important to identify clusters and isolate positive patients. 

Healthcare readiness

This metric deals with the capacity of hospitals and other health care facilities to respond to COVID-19.

According to DOH, there are 1,934 medical facilities in the country that can respond to COVID-19 patients.

However, many of the facilities in Metro Manila are already in the danger zone, meaning most of the COVID-19 facilities in the area are reaching full capacity.

According to Rabajante, although our health care capacity has increased, in Metro Manila the rate is already alarming, with nearly 80% occupancy rate at ICUs.

But DOH, however, said 789 medical facilities in the Philippines are in the safe zone, meaning their occupancy rate is less than 30%. Bed occupancy, meanwhile, is at 52.8%, or more than half are occupied by COVID-19 patients.

Rabajante stressed that health care does not only include beds, but also facilities and health workers.

He gave this metric a rating of 2-3.

Protecting at-risk populations

This metric is about caring for people with high-risk for COVID-19.

Limiting movement was a good move for at-risk population such as seniors, children, and those with other sickness such as high blood pressure and diabetes. The problem, however, is getting people to obey this policy.

“Ayoko sabihing pagkukulang ng government kasi ano ito eh, responsibility ng bawat isa,” said Rabajante.

He also gave no marks for this metric because of the lack of data.

Overall, Rabajante said that while we’re not at level 4, “we’re at the level where we’re improving.”

“Hindi naman tayo losing, kasi we know that there are improvements, and that’s good,” he said.

“We need to be faster than the virus, and to be faster than the virus means future-thinking. We need to be proactive at hindi lang basta reactive. I think that’s the reason why siguro malayo yung agwat nung mga Vietnam, Thailand compared sa atin.” – RC, GMA News