Three squads have already sealed their spots in the NCAA Season 99 women's volleyball Final Four while two more teams remain in contention.
Here's what's at stake in the final elimination round game on Wednesday.
First, it's important to understand how the NCAA ranks its teams, including the tiebreaks.
According to league rulebook, the first is the win-loss record, or more simply put, the number of wins.
In case of a tie in the standings, though, it goes down to the league's criteria for breaking ties, which it has outlined.
The first tiebreaker is the number of points gained in the league table. These are not points scored, but rather the points earned by teams through wins and losses. In the NCAA, teams that win their games in three or four sets gain 3 points, teams that win their games in five sets gain 2 points, while teams that lose games in five sets gain 1 point. Teams that lose in three or four sets, or lose by forfeit, gain 0 points.
In case there are still ties in the standings, the league moves to the next tiebreaker, which is set quotient. A squad's set quotient is the number of sets they won over the season divided by the number of sets lost. If there are still unresolved ties, it then goes to point quotient, which is the number of points scored by a team divided by the number of points lost.
If ties still persist at this point, these are broken in favor of the team that won the last head-to-head game between the teams.
By virtue of their nine-game sweep of the elimination round, De La Salle-College of Saint Benilde have already clinched the number one seed and an outright Finals berth with a pristine 9-0 record.
Currently, though, there are three teams — Lyceum of the Philippines University, Arellano University, and Mapua University — that are sporting identical 6-3 records. Another team, Colegio de San Juan de Letran, sits at 6-2 with one game left to play against San Sebastian College-Recoletos.
Depending on the result of Letran's final game, there are still several possible scenarios for the stepladder Final Four.
IF LETRAN WINS
If Letran wins, they will improve to 7-2 and will take the #2 spot behind Benilde.
In this case, LPU, Arellano, and Mapua will be locked in a three-way tie at 6-3.
In terms of the first tiebreak, LPU has 19 points while Arellano and Mapua both have 17. That means the Lady Pirates will slot in at #3 with the other two teams disputing the final spot.
For the second tiebreak, Arellano won 20 sets this season while dropping 13 for a set quotient of 1.538. Mapua, meanwhile, picked up only 19 set wins while losing 13 sets, giving them a set quotient of 1.462.
That means the Lady Chiefs will advance to the Final Four while the Lady Cardinals will fall short.
Not all is lost for Mapua, though, as mathematically there are still ways for them to advance in case of a Letran loss, under particular conditions, on Wednesday.
IF LETRAN LOSES
If Letran loses to San Sebastian things will be slightly more complicated with four teams tied at 6-3.
As with the previous scenario, LPU comes ahead in the first tiebreak with 19 points on the table, which essentially clinches them the second seed in case of a Letran defeat.
Currently Arellano, Mapua, and Letran are all tied at 17 points, which means things could change depending on how many sets are played in Letran's final assignment.
IF LETRAN LOSES IN FIVE SETS
If Letran loses in five sets, that would earn them an extra point on the table, moving them up to 18 points with Arellano and Mapua at 17. That means the Lady Knights will finish the elimination round at #3.
As previously mentioned, the Lady Chiefs win the tiebreak between them and the Lady Cardinals, which means they will complete the Final Four cast as the four-seed.
IF LETRAN LOSES IN THREE OR FOUR SETS
If Letran loses in three or four sets, they don't get the extra point for the first tiebreak, which means all three teams head to the set quotient tiebreak.
In this scenario, Letran currently has 19 set wins and 11 set losses. If they lose in four sets, however, that would bring that number to 20 set wins and 14 set losses, which would give them a set quotient of 1.429. If they lose in three, the number would be 19 wins and 14 losses for a set quotient of 1.357. In either scenario, they would fall short of both Arellano's 1.538 and Mapua's 1.462, putting the Lady Knights' semis hopes in jeopardy.
That would result in Arellano taking #3 and Mapua #4 in the stepladder.
SO WHO GETS IN?
Benilde is already set at the 1-seed. In any of the scenarios, LPU and Arellano make it in as well, though their ranking is yet to be determined.
Letran can still finish as high as second place, but there's a chance they could be left out of the Final Four altogether.
Mapua, on the other hand, won't have their fate in their hands, but still have hope if things break their way.
The Final Four picture is far from set — and Wednesday's game day will prove to be crucial in determining which teams will go far and which will go home.
—with reporting by JK Carandang/JMB, GMA Integrated News
