OCTA: NCR positivity rate over 5% may not just be ‘holiday uptick’

The daily positivity rate in the National Capital Region (NCR) has increased to over 5% as of Monday, with an OCTA Research fellow warning that the spike could be more than just "a holiday uptick."

Dr. Guido David said said this was the first time the positivity rate in Metro Manila has risen above 5% since October 24. He added that the seven-day positivity rate in NCR was now at 2.4%.

"New cases in the country are projected to hit 1,200 by December 29, 2021, with at least 400 in the NCR," David said on Twitter.

“There is now concern that this is not just a holiday uptick. Please be advised that the situation is changing in the NCR and we must now be very mindful of minimum public health standards,” he added.

Asked what the latest reproduction and positivity rates meant, Guido said, "It is a serious increase in cases."

"I think we should be concerned about this. It is possible that the increase is being driven by Omicron," Guido told GMA News' Joseph Morong.

NCR Reproduction number up to 1.03 as of 12.25.21. Based on testing, the reproduction number could be up to 1.39. If this holds, cases could escalate very quickly. @dzbb @allangatus @News5PH @DZAR1026 @dzrhnews @NewsRmn @dwiz882 @dzme_1530khz @ABSCBNNews @NET25TV @manilabulletin pic.twitter.com/yTsVJCrr2z

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) December 28, 2021

As regards the reproduction number, Guido said, "If we look at the reproduction number based on testing (green), it shows a value as high as 1.39."

"This rapid increase in reproduction number could only be mean one thing. Let us continue to be extra vigilant and not be complacent in following minimum public health protocols," Guido said on Twitter.

Meanwhile, the Department of Health on Tuesday reported 421 new COVID-19 infections, bringing the total count of confirmed cases to 2,839,111.

Metro Manila recorded the highest number of new cases with 170 or 41%, followed by Calabarzon with 55 or 13% and Central Luzon with 39 or 10%.

Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire earlier said the NCR remained at minimal risk classification with a negative 2-week growth rate and an average daily attack rate of 0.69 per 100,000 individuals. —BM/NB, GMA News