Close to 50,000 deaths feared from looming NCR quake –PHIVOLCS

A magnitude 7.2 earthquake in Metro Manila may claim as many as 35,000 lives in the metropolis alone and thousands more in adjacent provinces, PHIVOLCS director Renato Solidum warned on Wednesday, May 10.

He also warned that the government should prepare contingency measures to ensure a continuation of leadership in the event of a catastrophe to the nation's capital.

Densely-packed NCR at high risk

In a meeting with the Senate Committee on Science and Technology (COMSTE), led by Sen. Paolo Benigno "Bam" Aquino IV and attended by Sen. Panfilo Lacson, Solidum said that PHIVOLCS derived its casualty estimates from studies of the ground conditions and population densities of Metro Manila and surrounding areas.

With close to 13 million people, Metro Manila is one of the most densely-populated cities in the world and is therefore at risk of high casualties in the event of an earthquake.

The West Valley Fault that runs underneath a major portion of the metropolis is already ripe for an earthquake: it moves roughly every 400 years, and the last big quake occurred in 1658—almost 360 years ago.

Far-reaching danger zone

But it's not just the places on or near the fault that are in danger, Solidum warned.

He pointed out that the famous collapse of the Ruby Tower in Binondo, Manila, in 1968, which killed over 200 people, was caused by an earthquake over 200 km away in Casiguran, Aurora, Quezon.

"People are so focused on (the faults themselves). Feeling nila, pag malayo, okay na," Solidum lamented.

He said that ground conditions as well as the integrity of the buildings themselves are important factors in survivability.

Post-earthquake hazards

There are also post-earthquake hazards that need to be considered, such as fires and a breakdown in communications due to damaged infrastructure.

Solidum also pointed out that areas along the coasts of Manila Bay and Laguna de Bay are prone to liquefaction—when apparently solid ground behaves like a liquid or quicksand.

Liquefaction is particularly a concern in reclaimed areas like the Port Area, Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA), and the Philippine Senate complex itself.

Need to enforce building codes

"If people build according to government codes, dapat safe. You can build a house very near a fault but it has to be earthquake resistant," Solidum said.

"Hazard is different from risk," he added.

However, Solidum lamented the lack of government pressure and qualified inspectors to enforce building codes.

"Would it make sense if we mandate (by law) that all these buildings be regularly checked for resiliency?" Aquino asked.

"Yes, that's one of my suggestions. We need to have specific structural evaluation," Solidum replied.

Ensuring economic resiliency

As he was speaking before the Senate, Solidum took the opportunity to raise another area of concern: that of ensuring the continuation of government in the event of a catastrophe.

"We need to look at structural resiliency and, at a higher level, our economic resiliency," he said.

Solidum recommended that the government devise a recovery plan for quickly regrouping government officials in the aftermath of disaster.

"We need to ensure the continuity of national agencies. Saan magko-convene? Saan ang secondary offices?" Solidum pointed out.

Lack of 'disaster imagination'

Moreover, Solidum said that the public at large needs to have a greater "disaster imagination": Filipinos need to clearly visualize in their heads all the possible horrors of a major earthquake—because it's the only way to prepare for such an eventuality.

"No technology in the world can yet predict an earthquake," Solidum underscored.

"(The earth is) like a rubber band: it stretches before it breaks. You can predict that it will break, but the timing can be anything from minutes to hours to days to weeks," he concluded. — GMA News