Christmas season remittances influx could ease inflation in Q4 —BSP

The influx of remittances from overseas Filipino workers during the holiday season could help in slowing down inflation in the last three months of the year, despite the expected stronger demand that could further put pressure on prices.

"Ang lagi naming sinasabi diyan kapag Christmas bumubuhos naman ang remittances, 'pag bumuhos ang remittances ang peso-dollar rate mag-i-improve," Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo said at a forum in Quezon City on Saturday.

"So 'pag nag improve ang dollar-peso rate makakatulong din naman 'yun sa pagsugpo ng masyadong mabilis na pagsipa ng presyo... Kaya all things being equal at wala masyadong impact ang holidays." 

The BSP is expecting an inflation slowdown in the last quarter of the year and ease within the government's target range of 2 to 4 percent next year. 

"Normally ang aming baseline forecast is 4-percent growth for entire year of 2018,  ibig sabhin 4-pecent means that nung 2017 naka $28 billion dollars tayo kapag pina akyat mo 'yan ng 4 percent maaaring $29 to$ 30 billion," Guinigundo said.

"But normally, itong 2018 yung huling quarter maybe bigger kasi nakita natin 'yung deployment ng labor bagamat nagkaroon ng problema sa Middle East patuloy na malakas 'yung deployment of labor kasi new markets are found by the POEA (Philippine Overseas Employment Administration)," he said.

Apart from overseas Filipinos' remittances, revenue from the business process outsourcing (BPO) sector and tourism receipts could boost the country's dollar supply, thus strengthening the peso and help ease the price of goods, particularly the imports. —LBG, GMA News